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nVidia stock plunging
#1
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/nvidia-i...arter.html

Hopefully this will humble them a bit is what I would say. Stop charging so much for their graphics cards. They royally messed up the whole Turing launch unlike anything I have seen as a tech enthusiast. First the paper launch and the deceptive graphs and statements. Then the high prices. Then the defects. And finally the nonexistent RTX features that even now are buggy and only available in two games AFAIK. I know if I bought one I would not be happy.

It's basic economics, supply and demand. I don't know if this was due to Moore's Law being dead or greed. Perhaps both. But nVidia played this wrong IMO.

The whole crypto thing isn't helping them, either.
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#2
In case anyone hasn't noticed, the entire market is way down.  *Uncertainty* due mostly to the political situation with trade wars on all fronts and increasing tariffs have taken a bull market close to a recession.  This is the worst December since the Great Depression and Tech stocks have been hit particularly hard.  From the link posted in the OP:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/nvidia-i...arter.html  

Let's say for the case of argument that Nvidia has done everything wrong recently and AMD has done everything right:

Quote:Chip stocks have been hit hard. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which consists of 30 companies including Nvidia, has dropped 19 percent, with Advanced Micro Devices plummeting 45 percent and Micron falling 33 percent.

AMD is down 45%.  The author is simplistic by tying so much to crypto-currency.  AMD also had big income from it - the difference is that they didn't have a large inventory - nor did they make as much from it as Nvidia did.

And Nvidia's AI division which is criticized by the author is still making bank - Intel, Google, and AMD are hurrying to get into it but are behind Nvidia by about 6-8 years.  Nvidia data center grew spectacularly last year - but was overvalued by analysts.
Quote:The company's data center segment, which includes sales to cloud providers like Amazon, also failed to meet Wall Street's estimates, even though revenue grew 58 percent.

Is Nvidia in danger of failing.  No, it's a matter of investors' stupidly overblown expectations.  Nvidia's stock was never worth $250 at its high.  The whole stock market valuation was overblown - again due to the political situation driven by the PotUS which promised much in the way of deregulation - and delivered nothing.

I am a better analyst than any of these guys and could write a much better article. Here is the KEY to what is happening:
Quote:At its high, Nvidia was selling for almost 54 times forward earnings, well over four times the current price-to-earnings multiple for the semiconductor sector, according to FactSet. Sales and profit continue to grow — just not fast enough to meet investors' lofty expectations.

As to Turing, it's expensive but Nvidia *gambled* on it just like my analysis pointed out when it was first released.  They probably did not expect the tariffs nor that it would take so long to get ray tracing and DLSS into games.
https://babeltechreviews.com/benchmarking_turing_rtx/6/
Quote:NVIDIA is betting their gaming future on introducing RTX and ray tracing now.

Was it a mistake?  AMD and Intel are rushing to catch up.  

Could Nvidia have played this better?  Absolutely.  Hindsight is always 20/20.  And perhaps Nvidia's biggest weakness is their social marketing which isn't worth a crap.  They don't explain themselves well at all and they have alienated many of their fans and allies.
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#3
Today's news - and the headlines are quoted that say it all

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/nvidia-s...dance.html

Quote:Nvidia tanks 12% after chipmaker cuts guidance, citing 'deteriorating' economic conditions in China
The warning adds Nvidia to a growing list of U.S. companies facing revenue challenges in China.
The company reports earnings on Feb. 14, and now expects quarterly revenue of $2.20 billion, down from previously stated guidance of $2.70 billion.
The company also pointed to headwinds in gaming and datacenters.

Adrenalin 19.1.2 performance analysis due tonight before the Vega 64 OC showdown with the RTX 2070 on Wednesday. I am not sure I will perform the sound card review at all yet; I might buy a receiver on Friday if I decide to do it.
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#4
(12-23-2018, 08:14 PM)SickBeast Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/nvidia-i...arter.html

Hopefully this will humble them a bit is what I would say.  Stop charging so much for their graphics cards.  They royally messed up the whole Turing launch unlike anything I have seen as a tech enthusiast.  First the paper launch and the deceptive graphs and statements.  Then the high prices.  Then the defects.  And finally the nonexistent RTX features that even now are buggy and only available in two games AFAIK.  I know if I bought one I would not be happy.

It's basic economics, supply and demand.  I don't know if this was due to Moore's Law being dead or greed.  Perhaps both.  But nVidia played this wrong IMO.

The whole crypto thing isn't helping them, either.

Hard to say what they were doing with the Turing launch.

I thought about buying a RTX2080 or 2080Ti Friday and yesterday, read up on them and looked at what they could be had for.

Combination of price, me not gaming much any longer, shift to Xbox One X, and 1080Ti handling 3440 X 1440 monitor resolution very well kept my money in pocket.

Not to mention I don't know if I even WANT my framerate to go above my 100Hz max refresh rate. These framerate caps like FastSync don't seem as snappy to me, would rather GSync is matching the framerate to the refresh rate from what I've observed. So I guess I'd prefer framerates in the 60-100fps range and the 1080Ti can generally do that at my resolution.
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#5
(02-17-2019, 02:50 PM)CyberMage Wrote: Hard to say what they were doing with the Turing launch.

I thought about buying a RTX2080 or 2080Ti Friday and yesterday, read up on them and looked at what they could be had for.

Combination of price, me not gaming much any longer, shift to Xbox One X, and 1080Ti handling 3440 X 1440 monitor resolution very well kept my money in pocket.

Not to mention I don't know if I even WANT my framerate to go above my 100Hz max refresh rate. These framerate caps like FastSync don't seem as snappy to me, would rather GSync is matching the framerate to the refresh rate from what I've observed. So I guess I'd prefer framerates in the 60-100fps range and the 1080Ti can generally do that at my resolution.

Nvidia's stock was hit by a dose of reality just like with many other tech stocks including Apple and AMD. They were ridiculously overvalued at $300 at their peak when investors were hyped by one successful quarter after another. Now they are worth about what they should be. Nvidia still has billions in the bank and is working on the next generation with multiple teams fielded.

Nvidia introduced an unpopular generation that HAD to be launched if ray tracing is the next big thing. They are betting their company on it as my analysis pointed out in my review when Turing first launched. And I think they picked a great time because their competitor is struggling now with old power-hungry slower chips while working on their own next generation.

It is easy to say what Nvidia is doing with Turing. They are creating a ray tracing genesis for gaming and betting long term on AI.

A GTX 1080 Ti is still really popular for playing games at 3440x1440. A RTX 2080 is only incrementally faster for a lot more money just as the Radeon VII is a relatively small upgrade over a premium Vega 64. For better pricing bang for buck you will probably have to hang on until the 7nm generation. It isn't like you are suffering with a 1080 Ti now.

A higher than 60Hz refresh rate is generally more important for competitive gamers that for most of us and they often use specific custom settings that also increase frame rates. I can see some improvement with fluidity when set my screen to 100MHz over 60MHz on my Acer Predator X34 Gsync display playing a really-fast paced shooter. There are very few FreeSync displays that are validated and specifically supported by Nvidia for Gsync.
Gamer4
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#6
I don't know that they're "betting the company" on ray tracing. History is full of directions not taken in the gaming industry. (E.G. TruForm, Glide)

The fact that Turing is still the fastest, most efficient GPU on non ray tracing games makes it a pretty safe bet. If AMD launches a Navi part without ray tracing and with somewhere between 2080 and 2080Ti performance at $699, THAT would put a dent in NVs market share, but not end them as a company.

For that matter, if AMD could start selling an 8GB version of VII for $499 they would steal some large chunks of NVs 2080 and 2070 market.
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#7
(02-19-2019, 06:20 PM)CyberMage Wrote: I don't know that they're "betting the company" on ray tracing. History is full of directions not taken in the gaming industry. (E.G. TruForm, Glide)

The fact that Turing is still the fastest, most efficient GPU on non ray tracing games makes it a pretty safe bet. If AMD launches a Navi part without ray tracing and with somewhere between 2080 and 2080Ti performance at $699, THAT would put a dent in NVs market share, but not end them as a company.

For that matter, if AMD could start selling an 8GB version of VII for $499 they would steal some large chunks of NVs 2080 and 2070 market.

Ray tracing is a sure bet for gaming. It's a matter of when now.

"Not end them as a company" is a bit melodramatic. There isn't anything AMD can do to "end" Nvidia in any short term manner even if they bring a very successful lineup to market.

As to taking "large chunks" out of Nvidia's marketshare, Radeon VII is just an expensive placeholder. AMD will show their real goods later this year and next.
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